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POPULATION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXPECTED TO RISE!
Posted by Bryan Guentner on Wednesday, March 10th, 2010 at 10:59am.According to an article in the Sarasota Herald Tribune, after a startling one-year decline, Southwest Florida's population is expected to rise only slightly this year, to about 873,700 people, before returning to more normal growth within about five years. A new University of Florida study estimates that the combined population of Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota counties will be up by about 500 from 2009.
In comparison, the combined three-county population declined nearly 4,000 from 2008 to 2009. The Southwest Florida decline mirrored a rare statewide drop of about 57,000 residents, the first since a post-World War II exodus in the 1940s. Population experts at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research say that decline appears to be a one-year blip caused by the recession, which has virtually shut down the construction industry that helped the state boost population by nearly 400,000 people per year in the early 2000s.
Affordable housing and a slowly improving economy should nudge Florida's population this year, according to the bureau. The study, conducted by bureau director Stan Smith, indicates that Florida's growth will return to previous levels in 2014 or 2015.
"There are already signs that nationally we may be out of the recession, even though employment has not recovered," Smith said. "We expect growth to be very slow for another year or two, but then to start picking up again."
Some experts say housing prices are the key. "This loss of population was a result of unaffordable housing that came about during the 2003 to 2006 boom period," said Brad Hunter, chief economist for consulting firm Metrostudy, in Palm Beach Gardens. "A lot of people that would have ordinarily come to Florida from elsewhere didn't, because it was no longer a value proposition for them."
The study expects the region to grow by about 37 percent over the next 25 years, adding 326,421 people to the current total of 873,179, pushing the total to about 1.2 million. If the projections hold true, Charlotte would add about 2,321 people annually, or 58,045 by 2035, while Manatee would add 4,920 annually and a total of 122,996. Sarasota County is expected to grow by 5,815. The study said 25 counties would likely lose population from 2009 to this year, with others growing only slowly, with many seeing future increases "smaller than they have been in the past."
The UF researchers admit the projections are imperfect. Long-range estimates offered in the past decade proved off the mark as the economy swelled with the real estate bubble, then shrank dramatically. Results of this year's federal census will likely cause some of the figures to be adjusted.
Don't forget to contact Re/Max Platinum Realty at 941-929-9090 for your needs in Sarasota real estate, as well as your needs for Siesta Key real estate and Casey Key real estate.
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